1st April 2020
With Lockdown in Nepal for a week now, everyone must be thinking “When will this end?”, “How will this end?”
Possible scenarios: The Good, The Ugly and The Bad!
1. The Good. Nepal keeps Covid19 Free. No local spread, no community spread. With warmer weather nCov19 disappears completely as other past Corona viruses like SARS1. SARS1 completely disappeared by mid May. GREAT! Or is it…….?
2. The Ugly. What if Covid19 doesn’t disappear? We see that warmer weather countries are also affected. We kept Nepal Corona virus Free by nationwide lockdown (for 2,3 or 4 weeks). No Covid19 means, no immunity against it in Nepal. Which keeps us unprotected and vulnerable for potential outbreak any day. We cant keep Nepal under lockdown for 18-24 months, before vaccines are available. So we end up with Italy-Like outburst.
3. The Bad. We get our first outbreak. We allow Covid19 to spread, but under strict control like South Korea and Japan are doing. Keeping numbers under control for hospital capacity to treat every seriously ill person, thus decreasing the death rate. Gradually Nepalese will start developing Natural immunity. We buy time with controlled spread. Then vaccines are available for those who doesn’t have immunity.
we call for nationwide lockdown without a single local or community
spread. Probably government was not confident that they don’t have local
or community infection. Otherwise why lockdown?
Shortsightedness lead to lockdown, lead to Corona Free, and it ends with The Good scenario. Wonderful!
But at the same time Shortsightedness can also lead to potential for The Ugly scenario. More lockdown. How long?
Are we prepared for Bad scenario? Do we have experts that understands how to identify clusters and control the spread?
Don’t Panic and Stay Calm.